(With Photokina coming up and the new product rumor mill kicking into high gear, I posted something similar to the following in an online forum yesterday.)
Today I was pondering Canon cameras and how the different models fit into Canon’s overall line-up. I wonder if Canon might be heading towards something like the following:
- A 400D (or 370XTi, or whatever it might be called) is introduced. More buyers consider it instead of the 30D since image quality is arguably as good or better, it increases the MP count to 10+, it has some cool new features such as dust removal, larger LCD, etc. Maybe the 30D gets lost in the shuffle.
- But that’s OK. At some point Canon lowers the price of their low-end 12 MP full-frame camera (the 5D or something similar that follows) to a point only a few hundred dollars above the price of the 30D (perhaps $1500-$1800)… and the 30D then goes away. In other words, Canon moves the portion of the market that was interested in the crop sensor 30D “up” to a FF sensor camera at a price point not too far above that of the 30D. (How many 20D/30D owners would consider an upgrade to a 12 MP FF camera under these circumstances? Quite a few, I think. And those who wouldn’t? They would continue to be happy with their 20D/30D, or maybe even think about the 400D.)
- A new FF camera is eventually introduced at a price point midway between the re-priced 5D and the 1-series cameras – in a sense it takes the place of the current 5D. Perhaps it has a 16 MP sensor and a few other desirable features not in the 5D, such as a high frame rate for action/sport photography, etc.
- At some point the 1-series cameras merge into a single new body with the same pixel density as the 8.2 MP cameras, but on a full frame sensor – thus providing something like a 22 MP sensor.
Another thought… people have pointed out that the pixel density on a 22 MP full-frame sensor is about the same as that on an 8.2 MP 1.6x crop sensor. However, if Canon and others can now put 10+ MP on the 1.6x crop sensor, shouldn’t it be possible to create a full-frame sensor with the same pixel density that provides about 26-27 MP?
And one more… perhaps the current 350D sticks around as the new low-end DSLR, at a reduced price?
Just today I saw that Dell is selling the 5D for less than $2500. Hmmm…
Just for fun, here is a totally speculative before and after view of the market segments.
| Market | Price | Current | Future |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casual | $100-$400 | P&S Camera | P&S Camera |
| Amateur | $500-$700 | Hi quality P&S Camera | 350D or similar w/kit lens, crop sensor |
| Serious amateur | $900-$1000 | 350D | 400D/XTi w/10 MP and crop sensor |
| Semi-pro/serious amateur | $1500-$2000 | 30D | 5D or similar w/FF 12 MP |
| Pro/semi-pro | $3000-$3500 | 5D | 3D (?) w/FF 16 MP |
| Pro | $7000-$10000 | Current 1-series | New 1-series w/FF 20+ MP |
All of this – in the nutty spirit of the “rumor thread” where I posted it – is totally wild conjecture and has no basis in actual fact whatsoever. But what the heck, its fun to speculate, too… ;-)
G Dan Mitchell is a California photographer and visual opportunist. His book, “California’s Fall Color: A Photographer’s Guide to Autumn in the Sierra” (Heyday Books) is available directly from him.
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