About a year ago (in 2006) I posted some Idle Speculation About Canon Products that included ideas about where Canon might go with future DSLR products. (It also included one or more dumb errors, but what the heck… I haven’t edited the original in case you want the pleasure of finding them.)
I keep waiting for Canon to call up and ask for my advice but the phone never rings. What’s up with that?
In any case, the recent Nikon product announcements and resulting teeth-gnashing in Canon online forums got me thinking again about what I would do if I were God of Canon Product Introductions. Since everyone else is commenting on this stuff, why shouldn’t I? So, by product category, here are my thoughts:
Consumer P&S Cameras – I’m not even going to go try to say anything intelligent about this category of big-selling low-end point and shoot camera, except to recognize that it is an important part of any camera company’s planning, both for direct income from the segment and for building brand loyalty among buyers who may eventually move up to the DSLR market.
High-end P&S camera – I believe there is actually a lot of potential in this segment, though it appeals to such a diverse group of buyers that it can be hard to hit all the bases and create a well-designed, usable camera. However, from what I’m hearing, the new G9 sounds like a great little camera – small, high MP, decent lens (though not wide enough). We’ll have to see what the sensor noise is like, especially at higher ISOs.
Entry-level DSLR – The Canon 400D/XTi is actually quite a fine camera in this category. While the Nikon models are doing very well, there isn’t too much that Canon can do to upgrade this camera without competing with their own existing models higher up price range. However, Canon does have one special opportunity here. Below I’ll mention a way to make the next higher camera (the 40D) more competitive; if this happens, the door would be open for Canon to significantly update the 400D-class crop sensor model without competing with its own products. The result for Canon could be to free them to make the “best in class” entry-level DSLR without risking sales of their other models.
“Prosumer” APS-C DSLR – The new 40D has a fine set of specifications… for last year.
It is a fine camera and it will take excellent photos, the price is decent, it now includes dust reduction, higher frame rates, and a 10 MP sensor. But everyone else has these features now, too, and Nikon’s slightly more expensive D300 has a better feature set. While the 40D is good enough for just about anyone in this product category, Canon no longer sells the best product in the high-end APS-C sensor camera category. This must really be tough for Canon, especially because Nikon’s announcement one-upped them within days of the announcement of the 40D.
However, Canon does have a potent weapon here. Canon has been the only major company offering full-frame DSLRs. Even though Nikon now offers one FF body, Canon arguably still sells the best FF (1DsMKIII) and the most affordable FF (5D). While it would be just about impossible to sell a camera in the 40D product category that distinctly outperformed the D300, Canon probably could produce a “full-frame 40D” at about the cost of the D300, thus providing a unique (and distinctly marketable) advantage: “the only affordable full frame DSLR.”
This is not the kind of change that is going to happen over a couple months, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see such a camera announced within the next year. It could happen even sooner if Canon simply repositions the current 5D or similar body at a price point around or just below $2000. While this would have been impossible a year or two earlier, I think this is quite possible (and perhaps quite necessary) now.
Not Sure What to Call It, But Right Now It Is the 5D – Last year I might have described this as “entry-level full-frame” or “semi-pro full-frame,” but those titles don’t seem quite right. The 5D has increasingly become the Canon DSLR of choice for those who want the advantages of full frame and higher MP count, but are not about to spend $8000 on the 1Ds models. This category gives up little or nothing to the 1-Series in terms of image quality, though it isn’t weather sealed and it isn’t fast, being limited to the same 3fps burst rate as the 400D. There has been no competition for the 5D – perhaps one reason that the price has stayed relatively high.
Although the Nikon D3 competes more directly with the Canon 1DMKIII, it also competes with the 5D since it, too, has a full-frame 12MP sensor. By updating the two-year-old 5D Canon can probably continue to own this product category. An upgrade is due and could include a 16MP sensor, a slightly faster burst mode (5 fps or so), and features that have become standard on other new models, such as dust reduction, larger LCD, and so forth.
(Canon does have to be a bit careful here since many serious photographers currently opt for the 5D over the much more expensive 1Ds series body. For this reason, features like weather-sealing are unlikely to show up here.)
Sports/Photojournalism – The recently announced 1DMKIII created quite a stir, and has generally been regarded as a significant upgrade in this category. This was tarnished a bit by reported focus problems, but that will likely get sorted out before long. However, Nikon seems to have taken dead aim at the 1DMKIII with the D3, which it one-ups in several ways. Most significantly perhaps, it almost equals the speed of the 1.3x 10 MP crop-sensor 1DMKIII but with a full-frame 12 MP sensor! For what its worth, Nikon can credibly claim to offer the “best of breed” in this category, albeit at a somewhat higher price. In the real world, either camera will perform the tasks it is designed for extremely well. I’d guess that the next iteration of this 1D series will use a full frame sensor, but that it won’t be rushed out in less than 18 months.
High-end, High-MP – That’s the 21+ MP 1DsMKIII. Canon has (until Nikon or Sony announce something) no competition here. If anything, this camera can compete with MF cameras to some extent.
To summarize, Canon’s biggest problem would appear to be at the 40D product category level, but they could leverage their experience with full frame sensors to create a category leading camera at this level.
Some final notes:
- I use Canon gear. I’m not worried about competition from Nikon (or Sony, etc.). I’m not even remotely thinking about switching brands.
- Canon’s position in the DSLR market has not been seriously challenged recently. Competition from Nikon and others is good news for photographers, no matter what their brand loyalty.
- The “lead” will probably switch back and forth from time to time.
- Multiple companies can produce great equipment. The myth that one is “best” and the others are “worse” is silly.
- Dan
BTW: One reason I posted this long piece here is so that I can point to it rather than retyping the same thing in discussions elsewhere on the web. Oh, and it will be fun to look back in a year or so and see how right – or wrong! – I was. :-)
G Dan Mitchell is a California photographer and visual opportunist whose subjects include the Pacific coast, redwood forests, central California oak/grasslands, the Sierra Nevada, California deserts, urban landscapes, night photography, and more.
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