Tag Archives: forecast

Commentary

Winter arrives in the Sierra?

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A few years ago I did what was a traditional end-of-season backpack trip out of Tuolumne Meadows on the last weekend during which the NPS permits overnight parking on Tioga Pass road – this is typically on or just before October 15. It was a beautiful weekend with – as I always hope for in October – pleasant, sunny conditions and beautiful light.

The following weekend a backpacking buddy who had been unable to make that trip tried his own end-of-seasons visit, hoping to wander up into the Twenty Lakes Basin area just east of Tioga Pass. He arrived late and rolled out his bivy sack at the small campground by the lake right below Tioga Pass… and woke up the next morning with more than a half foot of snow on top of him and more on the way. He scrambled out of his bag, got into his car, and managed to get out just before the road was blocked. He liked to say that he was there for the switch from fall to winter… literally.

It sounds like something similar may happen over the next 24 hours. From all reports, one of the biggest October storms that we’ve seen in California in decades may be sweeping through tonight and tomorrow, bringing heavy winds, a lot of rain, and the potential for some significant snow at the higher elevations.

The folks at the Dweeb Report (interesting source of Sierra weather info) include an ominous sentence in their most recent update: “WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE CREST COULD REACH BETWEEN 120MPH AND 140MPH OVER THE CENTRAL SIERRA.”

Of course, you knew this was leading to a comment on aspens, right? Given the rather strange conditions for aspen color this fall, somehow it doesn’t seem at all surprising that the storm might bring down a good portion of the remaining leaves!

Commentary

Keeping an Eye on Eastern Sierra Weather

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Those of us spending time in the eastern Sierra this time of year as we chase aspen color (and other subjects) need to pay a bit more careful attention to the changing weather, for photographic reasons and for safety reasons! October is a transitional season in the Sierra, and it can be warm and sunny one day and winter-like and snowy on the next.

Right now there are some question marks in the forecast for the upcoming weekend. I think we are still a bit too far away to get a truly precise forecast, but it does seem likely that the eastern Sierra will feel some effects from a passing weather system by late Saturday or on Sunday.

Some resources for those tracking the weather include:

  • The MammothWeather.com Dweeb Report. This is a private site that is really useful, especially if you learn to read between the lines a bit. To paraphrase (and read between those lines…) it is getting very cold in the eastern Sierra right now, will warm a bit later this week, and then “something” is passing through during the weekend.
  • For slightly geekier (as opposed to dweebier?) weather trackers, the California Forecast Discussion page at the NWS often gives some good hints about how the weather may develop. Currently the sum of the reports here suggests that a) it is going to get colder this weekend, b) a front is going to pass through, c) there is some chance of light snow in the eastern Sierra starting Saturday night, and d) there could be some windy conditions.
  • The NWS Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Kings Canyon 7-Day Forecast covers a good chunk of the higher portion of the range in short form. Current forecast suggests cloudiness from Saturday evening through Sunday with some chance of precip.

What does it all mean to aspen hunters? A few thoughts cross my mind:

  • If you want reliable sun light in the very early morning hours this weekend, Saturday will be your day. Get up early and be in place before the sun rises.
  • There is some potential for interesting cloud formations and effects as the front approaches (if we get lucky, perhaps close to sunset on Saturday?) and then clears (later in the day on Sunday?).
  • There is a good chance that you’ll be shooting in at least some cloudy conditions. This can be a good thing! Photographing the aspens up close in cloud-diffused light can provide some wonderful saturated colors, though you’ll probably want to do some color adjustments in post. (The light will tend to be a bit blue.)
  • Think of light snow as a positive thing for photographs. There are tons of aspen photographs – but not nearly so many that combine the colorful leaves with a fresh dusting of snow.
  • Dress warmly. If you plan to camp be prepared for wet and cold, and probably give yourself a bit more time to get set up and so forth. Consider camping at a lower elevation if you aren’t prepared for the cold. Think about how you’ll manage your gear as you continue to shoot in cold and damp.
  • Watch out for difficult driving conditions. While a dusting of snow is not usually a major problem, falling snow and dark conditions can make things more difficult – and while you may not find this challenging, keep in mind that quite a few other drivers may not be as secure about this as you are. Also, even a little snow can temporarily close some Sierra passes – the NPS is notorious for closing down Tioga Pass for tiny bits of snow.
  • Wind may be an issue – in several ways. It is not uncommon for a front with strong winds to suddenly bring down some of the most colorful leaves. If you have a higher elevation grove in mind, go Saturday! The wind can also compound the problem of light diminished by clouds – the leaves may be moving a lot. Look for more sheltered areas, wait for a pause in the wind, increase ISO and use a faster shutter speed… or embrace the blur and make it part of your shots. And don’t forget that wind increases the effect of the cold.